Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $99 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.82 · Δ 0.55
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $99 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$718 (187.9%) on $382 risked, vs +$1,088 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 15.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $99. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $99 by Dec 18
+$718
+187.9% on $382 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$382
Premium paid
Break-even
$91.82
+4.2% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
22%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.89 / -4.17 / 12.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | -$378 | -$381 | -$382 | -$382 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$361 | -$375 | -$382 | -$382 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$311 | -$346 | -$375 | -$382 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$197 | -$258 | -$326 | -$382 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$89 | -$159 | -$247 | -$382 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$73 | -$165 | -$370 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$104 | +$31 | -$59 | -$194 |
| $93 (+5%) | +$284 | +$217 | +$140 | +$71 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$635 | +$585 | +$538 | +$511 |
| $99 (+12%) ← target | +$818 | +$775 | +$739 | +$718 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$1,033 | +$998 | +$970 | +$952 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$1,454 | +$1,429 | +$1,409 | +$1,392 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.