Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $78 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.18 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $78 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$682 (214.3%) on $318 risked, vs $-1,012 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 18.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $78. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $78 by Dec 18
+$682
+214.3% on $318 risked
Max Profit
+$8,482
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$318
Premium paid
Break-even
$84.82
-3.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.11 / -3.1 / 12.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | +$1,384 | +$1,398 | +$1,415 | +$1,432 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$961 | +$964 | +$975 | +$992 |
| $78 (-11%) ← target | +$681 | +$670 | +$668 | +$682 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$570 | +$552 | +$541 | +$551 |
| $84 (-5%) | +$244 | +$201 | +$150 | +$111 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$87 | +$34 | -$36 | -$154 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$55 | -$130 | -$318 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$72 | -$127 | -$200 | -$318 |
| $93 (+5%) | -$157 | -$207 | -$266 | -$318 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$246 | -$279 | -$309 | -$318 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$289 | -$307 | -$317 | -$318 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$307 | -$315 | -$318 | -$318 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.