Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $97 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $88.12 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $84 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.59 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $97 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$729 (8.1%) on $8,971 risked, vs +$888 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $97. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $97 by Dec 18
+$729
+8.1% on $8,971 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$571
Put floors you at $84
Break-even
$89.71
+1.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.22 / -2.75 / 10.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | -$606 | -$600 | -$587 | -$571 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$565 | -$578 | -$583 | -$571 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$464 | -$502 | -$546 | -$571 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$278 | -$330 | -$401 | -$571 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$121 | -$173 | -$240 | -$335 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$48 | -$106 | -$159 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$133 | +$91 | +$44 | +$17 |
| $93 (+5%) | +$351 | +$319 | +$291 | +$282 |
| $97 (+10%) ← target | +$755 | +$739 | +$730 | +$729 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$1,172 | +$1,165 | +$1,163 | +$1,163 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$1,606 | +$1,603 | +$1,603 | +$1,603 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.