Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $100 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.82 · Δ 0.55
LONG PUT · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.18 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $100 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$500 (71.4%) on $700 risked, vs +$1,188 (13.5%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 5.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $100. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $100 by Dec 18
+$500
+71.4% on $700 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$700
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$95.00
+7.81% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
18%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
9.78 / -7.27 / 25.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | +$1,007 | +$1,017 | +$1,033 | +$1,050 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$600 | +$589 | +$593 | +$610 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$260 | +$206 | +$166 | +$169 |
| $84 (-5%) | +$46 | -$57 | -$177 | -$271 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$3 | -$126 | -$283 | -$536 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$128 | -$295 | -$688 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$31 | -$96 | -$259 | -$512 |
| $93 (+5%) | +$126 | +$10 | -$127 | -$247 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$390 | +$306 | +$229 | +$193 |
| $100 (+13%) ← target | +$630 | +$569 | +$522 | +$500 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$744 | +$692 | +$654 | +$634 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$1,147 | +$1,114 | +$1,092 | +$1,074 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.