Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $95 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $88.12 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $95 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.41 · Δ 0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $95 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$829 (9.6%) on $8,671 risked, vs +$688 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $95. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $95 by Dec 18
+$829
+9.6% on $8,671 risked
Max Profit
+$829
If the stock ≥ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
−$8,671
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$86.71
-1.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
78.34 / 2.44 / -9.34
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | -$1,621 | -$1,621 | -$1,621 | -$1,621 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$1,184 | -$1,181 | -$1,181 | -$1,181 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$754 | -$744 | -$740 | -$740 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$349 | -$321 | -$303 | -$300 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$126 | -$83 | -$46 | -$35 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$10 | +$63 | +$116 | +$141 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$134 | +$197 | +$266 | +$317 |
| $93 (+5%) | +$298 | +$371 | +$462 | +$582 |
| $95 (+8%) ← target | +$424 | +$502 | +$602 | +$829 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$504 | +$582 | +$680 | +$829 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$635 | +$703 | +$776 | +$829 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$709 | +$759 | +$804 | +$829 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.