Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.23 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $345 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.25 ยท ฮ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $330 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,602 (114.5%) on $1,398 risked, vs $-4,509 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 9.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $330 by Nov 20
+$1,602
+114.5% on $1,398 risked
Max Profit
+$1,602
If the stock โค $345 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,398
Net debit
Break-even
$361.02
-3.75% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-12.7 / -2.16 / 6.49
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | +$967 | +$1,084 | +$1,304 | +$1,602 |
| $319 (-15%) | +$740 | +$832 | +$1,030 | +$1,602 |
| $330 (-12%) โ target | +$596 | +$663 | +$819 | +$1,602 |
| $338 (-10%) | +$496 | +$543 | +$661 | +$1,602 |
| $356 (-5%) | +$245 | +$240 | +$241 | +$468 |
| $368 (-2%) | +$97 | +$60 | -$13 | -$657 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$57 | -$176 | -$1,398 |
| $383 (+2%) | -$94 | -$170 | -$330 | -$1,398 |
| $394 (+5%) | -$229 | -$332 | -$543 | -$1,398 |
| $413 (+10%) | -$437 | -$572 | -$835 | -$1,398 |
| $431 (+15%) | -$619 | -$774 | -$1,047 | -$1,398 |
| $450 (+20%) | -$776 | -$937 | -$1,191 | -$1,398 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.