Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $420 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.32 ยท ฮ 0.56
SHORT CALL ยท $405 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $26.34 ยท ฮ 0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $420 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,802 (150.4%) on $1,198 risked, vs +$4,491 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 12.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $420. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $420 by Nov 20
+$1,802
+150.4% on $1,198 risked
Max Profit
+$1,802
If the stock โฅ $405 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,198
Net debit
Break-even
$386.98
+3.17% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.37 / -0.41 / -0.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | -$823 | -$936 | -$1,102 | -$1,198 |
| $319 (-15%) | -$651 | -$765 | -$972 | -$1,198 |
| $338 (-10%) | -$451 | -$547 | -$753 | -$1,198 |
| $356 (-5%) | -$230 | -$293 | -$447 | -$1,198 |
| $368 (-2%) | -$93 | -$128 | -$229 | -$1,198 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$17 | -$76 | -$1,189 |
| $383 (+2%) | +$93 | +$96 | +$81 | -$439 |
| $394 (+5%) | +$230 | +$264 | +$318 | +$686 |
| $413 (+10%) | +$452 | +$533 | +$692 | +$1,802 |
| $420 (+12%) โ target | +$536 | +$633 | +$826 | +$1,802 |
| $431 (+15%) | +$659 | +$778 | +$1,014 | +$1,802 |
| $450 (+20%) | +$847 | +$994 | +$1,270 | +$1,802 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.