Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $420 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.32 ยท ฮ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $420 by Nov 20: the long call returns +$668 (17.4%) on $3,832 risked, vs +$4,491 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $420. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $420 by Nov 20
+$668
+17.4% on $3,832 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$3,832
Premium paid
Break-even
$413.32
+10.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
56.24 / -30.24 / 62.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | -$2,958 | -$3,337 | -$3,701 | -$3,832 |
| $319 (-15%) | -$2,456 | -$2,947 | -$3,498 | -$3,832 |
| $338 (-10%) | -$1,798 | -$2,386 | -$3,117 | -$3,832 |
| $356 (-5%) | -$978 | -$1,635 | -$2,504 | -$3,832 |
| $368 (-2%) | -$410 | -$1,093 | -$2,010 | -$3,832 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$695 | -$1,629 | -$3,823 |
| $383 (+2%) | +$433 | -$266 | -$1,206 | -$3,073 |
| $394 (+5%) | +$1,127 | +$428 | -$497 | -$1,948 |
| $413 (+10%) | +$2,389 | +$1,714 | +$859 | -$72 |
| $420 (+12%) โ target | +$2,921 | +$2,261 | +$1,446 | +$668 |
| $431 (+15%) | +$3,770 | +$3,139 | +$2,392 | +$1,803 |
| $450 (+20%) | +$5,253 | +$4,680 | +$4,056 | +$3,679 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.