Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $330 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.23 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $330 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$977 (27.7%) on $3,523 risked, vs $-4,509 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 2.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $330. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $330 by Nov 20
+$977
+27.7% on $3,523 risked
Max Profit
+$33,977
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$3,523
Premium paid
Break-even
$339.77
-9.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-43.76 / -25.65 / 62.37
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | +$4,544 | +$4,262 | +$4,000 | +$3,970 |
| $319 (-15%) | +$3,170 | +$2,776 | +$2,327 | +$2,094 |
| $330 (-12%) โ target | +$2,426 | +$1,971 | +$1,411 | +$977 |
| $338 (-10%) | +$1,953 | +$1,462 | +$832 | +$219 |
| $356 (-5%) | +$897 | +$337 | -$430 | -$1,657 |
| $368 (-2%) | +$341 | -$246 | -$1,062 | -$2,782 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$597 | -$1,430 | -$3,523 |
| $383 (+2%) | -$316 | -$919 | -$1,757 | -$3,523 |
| $394 (+5%) | -$748 | -$1,350 | -$2,174 | -$3,523 |
| $413 (+10%) | -$1,361 | -$1,940 | -$2,694 | -$3,523 |
| $431 (+15%) | -$1,855 | -$2,389 | -$3,035 | -$3,523 |
| $450 (+20%) | -$2,249 | -$2,725 | -$3,248 | -$3,523 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.