Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $375.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $25.47 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $415 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$1,444 (3.6%) on $40,056 risked, vs +$3,991 (10.6%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $415 by Nov 20
+$1,444
+3.6% on $40,056 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$4,556
Put floors you at $355
Break-even
$400.56
+6.79% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
67%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.75 / -24.55 / 58.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | -$3,590 | -$3,954 | -$4,361 | -$4,556 |
| $319 (-15%) | -$2,943 | -$3,405 | -$3,995 | -$4,556 |
| $338 (-10%) | -$2,126 | -$2,658 | -$3,385 | -$4,556 |
| $356 (-5%) | -$1,141 | -$1,708 | -$2,498 | -$4,422 |
| $368 (-2%) | -$474 | -$1,046 | -$1,836 | -$3,297 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$569 | -$1,343 | -$2,547 |
| $383 (+2%) | +$496 | -$64 | -$814 | -$1,797 |
| $394 (+5%) | +$1,281 | +$740 | +$43 | -$672 |
| $415 (+11%) โ target | +$2,873 | +$2,387 | +$1,818 | +$1,444 |
| $431 (+15%) | +$4,192 | +$3,758 | +$3,297 | +$3,079 |
| $450 (+20%) | +$5,783 | +$5,414 | +$5,068 | +$4,955 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.