Target Price Playground
PANW
$375.09
๐ข
PANW IV: 58.9% โ LOW
(-17.4% vs 30d avg of 71.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $430 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $38.32 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $375 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $35.23 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If PANW hits $430 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns $-1,855 (-25.2%) on $7,355 risked, vs +$5,491 (14.6%) for 100 shares on $37,509. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PANW is at $430. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if PANW hits $430 by Nov 20
$-1,855
-25.2% on $7,355 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$7,355
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$448.55
+19.58% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.48 / -55.9 / 124.75
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| PANW Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $300 (-20%) | +$1,586 | +$924 | +$299 | +$138 |
| $319 (-15%) | +$714 | -$172 | -$1,171 | -$1,738 |
| $338 (-10%) | +$155 | -$923 | -$2,285 | -$3,613 |
| $356 (-5%) | -$81 | -$1,299 | -$2,934 | -$5,489 |
| $368 (-2%) | -$70 | -$1,340 | -$3,072 | -$6,614 |
| $375 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$1,292 | -$3,059 | -$7,346 |
| $383 (+2%) | +$117 | -$1,186 | -$2,963 | -$6,596 |
| $394 (+5%) | +$379 | -$922 | -$2,671 | -$5,471 |
| $413 (+10%) | +$1,028 | -$226 | -$1,834 | -$3,595 |
| $430 (+15%) โ target | +$1,844 | +$671 | -$738 | -$1,855 |
| $450 (+20%) | +$3,004 | +$1,955 | +$808 | +$156 |
Uses PANW's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.