Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $99 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.2 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.4 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $99 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$320 (177.8%) on $180 risked, vs $-1,312 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 15.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $99. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $99 by Dec 18
+$320
+177.8% on $180 risked
Max Profit
+$320
If the stock ≤ $105 at expiry
Max Loss
−$180
Net debit
Break-even
$108.20
-3.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
30%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-15.12 / -0.76 / 2.24
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | +$290 | +$305 | +$317 | +$320 |
| $95 (-15%) | +$245 | +$269 | +$301 | +$320 |
| $99 (-12%) ← target | +$201 | +$225 | +$265 | +$320 |
| $101 (-10%) | +$174 | +$195 | +$234 | +$320 |
| $107 (-5%) | +$85 | +$89 | +$97 | +$169 |
| $110 (-2%) | +$31 | +$23 | +$5 | -$168 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | -$3 | -$17 | -$48 | -$180 |
| $114 (+2%) | -$34 | -$53 | -$92 | -$180 |
| $118 (+5%) | -$74 | -$98 | -$137 | -$180 |
| $123 (+10%) | -$123 | -$145 | -$170 | -$180 |
| $129 (+15%) | -$153 | -$167 | -$178 | -$180 |
| $135 (+20%) | -$168 | -$176 | -$180 | -$180 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.