Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.0 · Δ 0.56
SHORT CALL · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.05 · Δ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$605 (153.2%) on $395 risked, vs +$1,288 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 13.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18
+$605
+153.2% on $395 risked
Max Profit
+$605
If the stock ≥ $120 at expiry
Max Loss
−$395
Net debit
Break-even
$113.95
+1.63% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
24.28 / -1.51 / 1.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | -$379 | -$390 | -$395 | -$395 |
| $95 (-15%) | -$343 | -$370 | -$391 | -$395 |
| $101 (-10%) | -$267 | -$310 | -$364 | -$395 |
| $107 (-5%) | -$143 | -$185 | -$258 | -$395 |
| $110 (-2%) | -$51 | -$79 | -$137 | -$395 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | +$15 | -$1 | -$36 | -$183 |
| $114 (+2%) | +$82 | +$80 | +$73 | +$41 |
| $118 (+5%) | +$181 | +$200 | +$236 | +$378 |
| $123 (+10%) | +$327 | +$370 | +$445 | +$605 |
| $125 (+11%) ← target | +$364 | +$410 | +$487 | +$605 |
| $129 (+15%) | +$438 | +$486 | +$553 | +$605 |
| $135 (+20%) | +$512 | +$551 | +$591 | +$605 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.