Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW (-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $120 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.4 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $112 Target $120 $78 $112 $146
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If PAYX hits $120 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$240 (2.3%) on $-240 credit (max loss $10,260), vs +$788 (7.0%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if PAYX hits $120 by Dec 18
+$240
+2.3% on $10,260 max loss
Max Profit
+$240
If the stock ≥ $105 at expiry
Max Loss
−$10,260
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$102.60
-8.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.15 / 4.44 / -13.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

PAYX Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$90 (-20%) -$1,273 -$1,266 -$1,271 -$1,290
$95 (-15%) -$802 -$764 -$730 -$730
$101 (-10%) -$416 -$350 -$265 -$169
$107 (-5%) -$136 -$60 +$43 +$240
$110 (-2%) -$16 +$55 +$145 +$240
$112 (0%) ← spot +$45 +$110 +$185 +$240
$114 (+2%) +$94 +$151 +$210 +$240
$118 (+5%) +$148 +$192 +$229 +$240
$120 (+7%) ← target +$174 +$209 +$235 +$240
$123 (+10%) +$200 +$225 +$239 +$240
$129 (+15%) +$224 +$236 +$240 +$240
$135 (+20%) +$234 +$239 +$240 +$240
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.