Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $120 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $112.12 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.05 · Δ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $120 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,093 (10.0%) on $10,907 risked, vs +$788 (7.0%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 1.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $120. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $120 by Dec 18
+$1,093
+10.0% on $10,907 risked
Max Profit
+$1,093
If the stock ≥ $120 at expiry
Max Loss
−$10,907
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$109.07
-2.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
68.3 / 5.48 / -14.48
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | -$1,939 | -$1,937 | -$1,937 | -$1,937 |
| $95 (-15%) | -$1,388 | -$1,379 | -$1,377 | -$1,377 |
| $101 (-10%) | -$854 | -$829 | -$817 | -$816 |
| $107 (-5%) | -$361 | -$309 | -$267 | -$256 |
| $110 (-2%) | -$95 | -$23 | +$48 | +$81 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | +$66 | +$151 | +$243 | +$305 |
| $114 (+2%) | +$213 | +$309 | +$421 | +$529 |
| $118 (+5%) | +$407 | +$514 | +$648 | +$866 |
| $120 (+7%) ← target | +$518 | +$629 | +$769 | +$1,093 |
| $123 (+10%) | +$654 | +$764 | +$900 | +$1,093 |
| $129 (+15%) | +$818 | +$913 | +$1,017 | +$1,093 |
| $135 (+20%) | +$917 | +$991 | +$1,057 | +$1,093 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.