Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $110 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $5.3 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.4 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $105 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$355 (122.5%) on $290 risked, vs $-712 (-6.4%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 19.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $105 by Dec 18
+$355
+122.5% on $290 risked
Max Profit
+$341
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$290
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$111.60
-0.46% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-15.49 / 0.24 / 6.19
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | +$179 | +$185 | +$183 | +$175 |
| $95 (-15%) | +$169 | +$187 | +$203 | +$191 |
| $101 (-10%) | +$136 | +$163 | +$204 | +$254 |
| $105 (-6%) ← target | +$94 | +$119 | +$163 | +$355 |
| $107 (-5%) | +$75 | +$98 | +$137 | +$258 |
| $110 (-2%) | +$29 | +$43 | +$64 | +$75 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | -$4 | +$3 | +$9 | -$21 |
| $114 (+2%) | -$37 | -$38 | -$45 | -$96 |
| $118 (+5%) | -$85 | -$96 | -$119 | -$178 |
| $123 (+10%) | -$155 | -$175 | -$207 | -$250 |
| $129 (+15%) | -$208 | -$229 | -$254 | -$278 |
| $135 (+20%) | -$243 | -$260 | -$276 | -$287 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.