Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.0 · Δ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$800 (114.3%) on $700 risked, vs +$1,288 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 9.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18
+$800
+114.3% on $700 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$700
Premium paid
Break-even
$117.00
+4.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.99 / -6.98 / 15.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | -$682 | -$695 | -$700 | -$700 |
| $95 (-15%) | -$638 | -$673 | -$696 | -$700 |
| $101 (-10%) | -$534 | -$601 | -$668 | -$700 |
| $107 (-5%) | -$343 | -$437 | -$553 | -$700 |
| $110 (-2%) | -$179 | -$281 | -$409 | -$700 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | -$51 | -$152 | -$280 | -$488 |
| $114 (+2%) | +$93 | -$5 | -$124 | -$264 |
| $118 (+5%) | +$336 | +$247 | +$148 | +$73 |
| $123 (+10%) | +$794 | +$727 | +$666 | +$633 |
| $125 (+11%) ← target | +$941 | +$880 | +$828 | +$800 |
| $129 (+15%) | +$1,302 | +$1,254 | +$1,217 | +$1,194 |
| $135 (+20%) | +$1,837 | +$1,802 | +$1,776 | +$1,754 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.