Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $112.12 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $105 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.4 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,048 (9.2%) on $11,452 risked, vs +$1,288 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $125 by Dec 18
+$1,048
+9.2% on $11,452 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$952
Put floors you at $105
Break-even
$114.52
+2.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
71.85 / -4.44 / 13.73
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | -$969 | -$976 | -$971 | -$952 |
| $95 (-15%) | -$880 | -$918 | -$952 | -$952 |
| $101 (-10%) | -$705 | -$771 | -$856 | -$952 |
| $107 (-5%) | -$425 | -$501 | -$604 | -$801 |
| $110 (-2%) | -$208 | -$279 | -$369 | -$464 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | -$45 | -$110 | -$185 | -$240 |
| $114 (+2%) | +$130 | +$73 | +$14 | -$16 |
| $118 (+5%) | +$413 | +$369 | +$332 | +$321 |
| $123 (+10%) | +$921 | +$896 | +$882 | +$881 |
| $125 (+11%) ← target | +$1,078 | +$1,059 | +$1,049 | +$1,048 |
| $129 (+15%) | +$1,458 | +$1,446 | +$1,442 | +$1,442 |
| $135 (+20%) | +$2,008 | +$2,003 | +$2,002 | +$2,002 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.