Target Price Playground
PAYX
$112.12
🟢
PAYX IV: 27.4% — LOW
(-43.3% vs 30d avg of 48.2%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $7.0 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.2 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PAYX hits $130 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$880 (78.6%) on $1,120 risked, vs +$1,788 (15.9%) for 100 shares on $11,212. Options give 4.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PAYX is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PAYX hits $130 by Dec 18
+$880
+78.6% on $1,120 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$1,120
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$121.20
+8.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
16%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
12.71 / -12.18 / 31.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PAYX Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $90 (-20%) | +$881 | +$876 | +$889 | +$910 |
| $95 (-15%) | +$410 | +$360 | +$335 | +$350 |
| $101 (-10%) | +$56 | -$57 | -$169 | -$211 |
| $107 (-5%) | -$122 | -$288 | -$498 | -$771 |
| $110 (-2%) | -$132 | -$313 | -$549 | -$1,108 |
| $112 (0%) ← spot | -$98 | -$279 | -$513 | -$908 |
| $114 (+2%) | -$34 | -$209 | -$426 | -$684 |
| $118 (+5%) | +$113 | -$43 | -$218 | -$347 |
| $123 (+10%) | +$470 | +$357 | +$257 | +$213 |
| $130 (+16%) ← target | +$1,018 | +$951 | +$904 | +$880 |
| $135 (+20%) | +$1,435 | +$1,387 | +$1,356 | +$1,334 |
Uses PAYX's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.