Target Price Playground
PYPL
$57.01
🟢
PYPL IV: 27.2% — LOW
(-56.5% vs 30d avg of 62.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $62 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $57.01 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $62 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.98 · Δ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PYPL hits $62 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$597 (10.7%) on $5,603 risked, vs +$499 (8.8%) for 100 shares on $5,701. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PYPL is at $62. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PYPL hits $62 by Dec 18
+$597
+10.7% on $5,603 risked
Max Profit
+$597
If the stock ≥ $62 at expiry
Max Loss
−$5,603
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$56.03
-1.72% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
73.57 / 2.38 / -6.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PYPL Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 (-20%) | -$1,043 | -$1,042 | -$1,042 | -$1,042 |
| $48 (-15%) | -$761 | -$758 | -$757 | -$757 |
| $51 (-10%) | -$486 | -$476 | -$472 | -$472 |
| $54 (-5%) | -$229 | -$206 | -$190 | -$187 |
| $56 (-2%) | -$87 | -$55 | -$26 | -$16 |
| $57 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$39 | +$78 | +$98 |
| $58 (+2%) | +$80 | +$126 | +$176 | +$212 |
| $60 (+5%) | +$188 | +$240 | +$305 | +$383 |
| $62 (+9%) ← target | +$298 | +$356 | +$429 | +$597 |
| $63 (+10%) | +$329 | +$387 | +$460 | +$597 |
| $66 (+15%) | +$427 | +$480 | +$541 | +$597 |
| $68 (+20%) | +$489 | +$532 | +$573 | +$597 |
Uses PYPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.