Target Price Playground
PYPL
$57.01
🟢
PYPL IV: 27.2% — LOW
(-56.5% vs 30d avg of 62.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $63 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $57.01 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $54 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.18 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If PYPL hits $63 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$481 (8.3%) on $5,819 risked, vs +$599 (10.5%) for 100 shares on $5,701. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if PYPL is at $63. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if PYPL hits $63 by Dec 18
+$481
+8.3% on $5,819 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$419
Put floors you at $54
Break-even
$58.19
+2.08% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
35%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
72.13 / -2.05 / 6.94
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| PYPL Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $46 (-20%) | -$432 | -$433 | -$429 | -$419 |
| $48 (-15%) | -$393 | -$409 | -$422 | -$419 |
| $51 (-10%) | -$313 | -$345 | -$384 | -$419 |
| $54 (-5%) | -$182 | -$222 | -$275 | -$403 |
| $56 (-2%) | -$78 | -$117 | -$166 | -$232 |
| $57 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$35 | -$79 | -$118 |
| $58 (+2%) | +$86 | +$54 | +$18 | -$4 |
| $60 (+5%) | +$225 | +$199 | +$176 | +$167 |
| $63 (+11%) ← target | +$505 | +$491 | +$482 | +$481 |
| $66 (+15%) | +$748 | +$740 | +$737 | +$737 |
| $68 (+20%) | +$1,026 | +$1,023 | +$1,022 | +$1,022 |
Uses PYPL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.