Target Price Playground
REGN
$927.89
🟢
REGN IV: 36.7% — LOW
(-49.8% vs 30d avg of 73.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $820 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $930 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $150.0 · Δ -0.48
SHORT PUT · $850 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $25.2 · Δ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If REGN hits $820 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns $-4,480 (-35.9%) on $12,480 risked, vs $-10,789 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $92,789. Options give 3.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if REGN is at $820. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if REGN hits $820 by Dec 18
$-4,480
-35.9% on $12,480 risked
Max Profit
+$-4,480
If the stock ≤ $850 at expiry
Max Loss
−$12,480
Net debit
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-26.22 / -9.04 / 24.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| REGN Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $742 (-20%) | -$5,202 | -$4,900 | -$4,588 | -$4,480 |
| $789 (-15%) | -$5,949 | -$5,579 | -$5,015 | -$4,480 |
| $820 (-12%) ← target | -$6,631 | -$6,304 | -$5,709 | -$4,480 |
| $835 (-10%) | -$7,000 | -$6,723 | -$6,186 | -$4,480 |
| $882 (-5%) | -$8,220 | -$8,177 | -$8,085 | -$7,630 |
| $909 (-2%) | -$8,955 | -$9,069 | -$9,308 | -$10,413 |
| $928 (0%) ← spot | -$9,422 | -$9,629 | -$10,051 | -$12,269 |
| $946 (+2%) | -$9,860 | -$10,143 | -$10,692 | -$12,480 |
| $974 (+5%) | -$10,450 | -$10,806 | -$11,432 | -$12,480 |
| $1021 (+10%) | -$11,229 | -$11,606 | -$12,126 | -$12,480 |
| $1067 (+15%) | -$11,760 | -$12,070 | -$12,385 | -$12,480 |
| $1113 (+20%) | -$12,091 | -$12,306 | -$12,459 | -$12,480 |
Uses REGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.