Target Price Playground
REGN
$927.89
🟢
REGN IV: 36.7% — LOW
(-49.8% vs 30d avg of 73.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $820 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $930 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $150.0 · Δ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If REGN hits $820 by Dec 18: the long put returns $-4,000 (-26.7%) on $15,000 risked, vs $-10,789 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $92,789. Options give 2.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if REGN is at $820. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if REGN hits $820 by Dec 18
$-4,000
-26.7% on $15,000 risked
Max Profit
+$78,000
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$15,000
Premium paid
Break-even
$780.00
-15.94% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-47.66 / -42.22 / 134.06
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| REGN Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $742 (-20%) | +$3,433 | +$3,466 | +$3,589 | +$3,769 |
| $789 (-15%) | -$804 | -$969 | -$1,017 | -$871 |
| $820 (-12%) ← target | -$3,430 | -$3,771 | -$4,041 | -$4,000 |
| $835 (-10%) | -$4,610 | -$5,040 | -$5,445 | -$5,510 |
| $882 (-5%) | -$7,814 | -$8,487 | -$9,320 | -$10,150 |
| $909 (-2%) | -$9,402 | -$10,166 | -$11,178 | -$12,933 |
| $928 (0%) ← spot | -$10,317 | -$11,113 | -$12,179 | -$14,789 |
| $946 (+2%) | -$11,121 | -$11,921 | -$12,986 | -$15,000 |
| $974 (+5%) | -$12,127 | -$12,892 | -$13,860 | -$15,000 |
| $1021 (+10%) | -$13,338 | -$13,962 | -$14,629 | -$15,000 |
| $1067 (+15%) | -$14,092 | -$14,534 | -$14,902 | -$15,000 |
| $1113 (+20%) | -$14,529 | -$14,809 | -$14,979 | -$15,000 |
Uses REGN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.