Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $32.52 · Δ -0.48
SHORT PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.25 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $105 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns $-1,827 (-64.6%) on $2,827 risked, vs $-1,325 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 5.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $105 by Dec 18
$-1,827
-64.6% on $2,827 risked
Max Profit
+$-1,827
If the stock ≤ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
−$2,827
Net debit
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-18.34 / -1.1 / 2.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$1,953 | -$1,910 | -$1,856 | -$1,827 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$2,037 | -$1,993 | -$1,919 | -$1,827 |
| $105 (-11%) ← target | -$2,115 | -$2,079 | -$2,009 | -$1,827 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$2,141 | -$2,110 | -$2,045 | -$1,827 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$2,257 | -$2,249 | -$2,228 | -$2,061 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$2,328 | -$2,335 | -$2,347 | -$2,415 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | -$2,374 | -$2,391 | -$2,425 | -$2,652 |
| $121 (+2%) | -$2,419 | -$2,445 | -$2,498 | -$2,827 |
| $124 (+5%) | -$2,481 | -$2,519 | -$2,592 | -$2,827 |
| $130 (+10%) | -$2,574 | -$2,623 | -$2,708 | -$2,827 |
| $136 (+15%) | -$2,648 | -$2,700 | -$2,774 | -$2,827 |
| $142 (+20%) | -$2,705 | -$2,752 | -$2,806 | -$2,827 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.