Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW (-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $125 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.25 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry Now $118 Target $125 $83 $118 $154
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If TRI hits $125 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$425 (4.0%) on $-425 credit (max loss $10,575), vs +$675 (5.7%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 0.7× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $125. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if TRI hits $125 by Dec 18
+$425
+4.0% on $10,575 max loss
Max Profit
+$425
If the stock ≥ $110 at expiry
Max Loss
−$10,575
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$105.75
-10.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
74%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
29.66 / 7.53 / -14.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

TRI Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$95 (-20%) -$1,245 -$1,181 -$1,123 -$1,115
$101 (-15%) -$820 -$723 -$609 -$524
$106 (-10%) -$470 -$350 -$192 +$67
$112 (-5%) -$194 -$67 +$101 +$425
$116 (-2%) -$63 +$60 +$219 +$425
$118 (0%) ← spot +$11 +$130 +$276 +$425
$121 (+2%) +$76 +$189 +$320 +$425
$125 (+6%) ← target +$174 +$272 +$373 +$425
$130 (+10%) +$258 +$335 +$404 +$425
$136 (+15%) +$323 +$379 +$418 +$425
$142 (+20%) +$365 +$403 +$423 +$425
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.