Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $110 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $120 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $10.53 · Δ -0.47
SHORT PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.25 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $110 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$569 (90.6%) on $628 risked, vs $-825 (-7.0%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 12.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $110. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $110 by Dec 18
+$569
+90.6% on $628 risked
Max Profit
+$552
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$609
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$119.55
+1.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-17.01 / 1.65 / 7.05
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | +$302 | +$333 | +$361 | +$351 |
| $101 (-15%) | +$259 | +$302 | +$360 | +$393 |
| $106 (-10%) | +$194 | +$239 | +$314 | +$482 |
| $110 (-7%) ← target | +$145 | +$186 | +$258 | +$570 |
| $112 (-5%) | +$109 | +$146 | +$210 | +$409 |
| $116 (-2%) | +$52 | +$78 | +$123 | +$191 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | +$11 | +$30 | +$59 | +$64 |
| $121 (+2%) | -$30 | -$20 | -$8 | -$50 |
| $124 (+5%) | -$92 | -$94 | -$107 | -$193 |
| $130 (+10%) | -$192 | -$214 | -$258 | -$370 |
| $136 (+15%) | -$283 | -$319 | -$380 | -$483 |
| $142 (+20%) | -$362 | -$405 | -$468 | -$551 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.