Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.4 · Δ 0.52
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $130 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$360 (56.2%) on $640 risked, vs +$1,175 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 5.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $130 by Dec 18
+$360
+56.2% on $640 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$640
Premium paid
Break-even
$126.40
+6.89% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
51.62 / -8.68 / 17.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$565 | -$610 | -$637 | -$640 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$482 | -$560 | -$623 | -$640 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$347 | -$459 | -$576 | -$640 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$146 | -$288 | -$460 | -$640 |
| $116 (-2%) | +$6 | -$148 | -$342 | -$640 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | +$123 | -$37 | -$241 | -$640 |
| $121 (+2%) | +$250 | +$88 | -$120 | -$578 |
| $124 (+5%) | +$460 | +$298 | +$94 | -$224 |
| $130 (+10%) ← target | +$854 | +$703 | +$526 | +$360 |
| $136 (+15%) | +$1,311 | +$1,180 | +$1,043 | +$959 |
| $142 (+20%) | +$1,804 | +$1,695 | +$1,597 | +$1,550 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.