Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $105 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $32.52 · Δ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $105 by Dec 18: the long put returns $-1,752 (-53.9%) on $3,252 risked, vs $-1,325 (-11.2%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 4.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $105. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $105 by Dec 18
$-1,752
-53.9% on $3,252 risked
Max Profit
+$8,748
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$3,252
Premium paid
Break-even
$87.48
-26.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-48.0 / -8.63 / 17.23
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$708 | -$730 | -$733 | -$712 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$1,216 | -$1,270 | -$1,310 | -$1,303 |
| $105 (-11%) ← target | -$1,567 | -$1,648 | -$1,728 | -$1,752 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$1,671 | -$1,760 | -$1,854 | -$1,894 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$2,063 | -$2,182 | -$2,329 | -$2,486 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$2,264 | -$2,395 | -$2,566 | -$2,840 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | -$2,385 | -$2,521 | -$2,701 | -$3,077 |
| $121 (+2%) | -$2,495 | -$2,633 | -$2,818 | -$3,252 |
| $124 (+5%) | -$2,639 | -$2,777 | -$2,958 | -$3,252 |
| $130 (+10%) | -$2,831 | -$2,958 | -$3,111 | -$3,252 |
| $136 (+15%) | -$2,971 | -$3,079 | -$3,192 | -$3,252 |
| $142 (+20%) | -$3,069 | -$3,154 | -$3,229 | -$3,252 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.