Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $118.25 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $110 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $4.25 · Δ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $130 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$750 (6.1%) on $12,250 risked, vs +$1,175 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 0.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $130 by Dec 18
+$750
+6.1% on $12,250 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,250
Put floors you at $110
Break-even
$122.50
+3.59% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.34 / -7.53 / 14.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$1,120 | -$1,184 | -$1,242 | -$1,250 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$954 | -$1,051 | -$1,165 | -$1,250 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$713 | -$833 | -$991 | -$1,250 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$397 | -$524 | -$692 | -$1,016 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$174 | -$297 | -$456 | -$662 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | -$11 | -$130 | -$276 | -$425 |
| $121 (+2%) | +$161 | +$48 | -$83 | -$188 |
| $124 (+5%) | +$433 | +$333 | +$226 | +$166 |
| $130 (+10%) ← target | +$919 | +$840 | +$772 | +$750 |
| $136 (+15%) | +$1,451 | +$1,395 | +$1,356 | +$1,349 |
| $142 (+20%) | +$2,000 | +$1,962 | +$1,942 | +$1,940 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.