Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $135 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.4 · Δ 0.52
LONG PUT · $120 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $32.52 · Δ -0.48
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $135 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-2,392 (-61.5%) on $3,892 risked, vs +$1,675 (14.2%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 4.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $135. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $135 by Dec 18
$-2,392
-61.5% on $3,892 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$3,892
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$81.08
-31.43% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
41%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
3.62 / -17.32 / 34.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$1,273 | -$1,340 | -$1,369 | -$1,352 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$1,699 | -$1,830 | -$1,933 | -$1,943 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$2,018 | -$2,219 | -$2,429 | -$2,534 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$2,209 | -$2,470 | -$2,789 | -$3,126 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$2,258 | -$2,543 | -$2,908 | -$3,480 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | -$2,262 | -$2,557 | -$2,942 | -$3,717 |
| $121 (+2%) | -$2,245 | -$2,545 | -$2,938 | -$3,830 |
| $124 (+5%) | -$2,179 | -$2,479 | -$2,863 | -$3,476 |
| $130 (+10%) | -$1,972 | -$2,249 | -$2,579 | -$2,884 |
| $135 (+14%) ← target | -$1,719 | -$1,965 | -$2,229 | -$2,392 |
| $142 (+20%) | -$1,266 | -$1,459 | -$1,632 | -$1,702 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.