Target Price Playground
TRI
$118.25
🟢
TRI IV: 41.3% — LOW
(-59.4% vs 30d avg of 101.8%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $130 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $118.25 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $130 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.52 · Δ 0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If TRI hits $130 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,727 (15.3%) on $11,273 risked, vs +$1,175 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $11,825. Options give 1.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TRI is at $130. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if TRI hits $130 by Dec 18
+$1,727
+15.3% on $11,273 risked
Max Profit
+$1,727
If the stock ≥ $130 at expiry
Max Loss
−$11,273
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$112.73
-4.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
56%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
65.49 / 8.11 / -15.71
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| TRI Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $95 (-20%) | -$1,839 | -$1,820 | -$1,813 | -$1,813 |
| $101 (-15%) | -$1,284 | -$1,245 | -$1,224 | -$1,222 |
| $106 (-10%) | -$761 | -$692 | -$641 | -$631 |
| $112 (-5%) | -$281 | -$177 | -$78 | -$39 |
| $116 (-2%) | -$20 | +$105 | +$238 | +$315 |
| $118 (0%) ← spot | +$143 | +$281 | +$436 | +$552 |
| $121 (+2%) | +$296 | +$445 | +$622 | +$789 |
| $124 (+5%) | +$505 | +$668 | +$871 | +$1,143 |
| $130 (+10%) ← target | +$800 | +$975 | +$1,200 | +$1,727 |
| $136 (+15%) | +$1,040 | +$1,213 | +$1,430 | +$1,727 |
| $142 (+20%) | +$1,221 | +$1,381 | +$1,567 | +$1,727 |
Uses TRI's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.