Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
SHORT PUT ยท $330 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.17 ยท ฮ -0.3
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $315 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,467 (142.0%) on $1,033 risked, vs $-4,158 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 12.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $315 by Nov 20
+$1,467
+142.0% on $1,033 risked
Max Profit
+$1,467
If the stock โค $330 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,033
Net debit
Break-even
$344.67
-3.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-14.52 / -1.9 / 9.77
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$1,051 | +$1,160 | +$1,332 | +$1,467 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$834 | +$931 | +$1,121 | +$1,467 |
| $315 (-12%) โ target | +$668 | +$743 | +$904 | +$1,467 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$582 | +$642 | +$776 | +$1,467 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$316 | +$321 | +$338 | +$592 |
| $349 (-2%) | +$158 | +$129 | +$69 | -$478 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$55 | +$6 | -$102 | -$1,033 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$43 | -$113 | -$260 | -$1,033 |
| $374 (+5%) | -$183 | -$277 | -$468 | -$1,033 |
| $392 (+10%) | -$389 | -$508 | -$725 | -$1,033 |
| $410 (+15%) | -$559 | -$685 | -$881 | -$1,033 |
| $428 (+20%) | -$692 | -$811 | -$964 | -$1,033 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.