Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $375 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$1,417 (4.5%) on $-1,417 credit (max loss $31,583), vs +$1,842 (5.2%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 0.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$3,616 | -$3,381 | -$3,133 | -$3,057 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$2,411 | -$2,083 | -$1,663 | -$1,274 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,412 | -$1,023 | -$484 | +$509 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$615 | -$209 | +$354 | +$1,417 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$228 | +$169 | +$703 | +$1,417 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$5 | +$380 | +$880 | +$1,417 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$193 | +$561 | +$1,020 | +$1,417 |
| $375 (+5%) โ target | +$459 | +$793 | +$1,178 | +$1,417 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$769 | +$1,043 | +$1,315 | +$1,417 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$993 | +$1,205 | +$1,378 | +$1,417 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$1,145 | +$1,300 | +$1,403 | +$1,417 |