Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $356.58 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.86 ยท ฮ 0.4
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $385 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$4,628 (13.7%) on $33,872 risked, vs +$2,842 (8.0%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $385 by Nov 20
+$4,628
+13.7% on $33,872 risked
Max Profit
+$4,628
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,872
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$338.72
-5.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
68%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
60.28 / 21.92 / -54.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$5,527 | -$5,411 | -$5,351 | -$5,346 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$3,932 | -$3,732 | -$3,587 | -$3,563 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$2,455 | -$2,153 | -$1,872 | -$1,780 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,126 | -$719 | -$266 | +$3 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$407 | +$55 | +$611 | +$1,073 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$36 | +$531 | +$1,150 | +$1,786 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$451 | +$973 | +$1,646 | +$2,499 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,021 | +$1,573 | +$2,306 | +$3,569 |
| $385 (+8%) โ target | +$1,523 | +$2,092 | +$2,853 | +$4,628 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$1,831 | +$2,404 | +$3,168 | +$4,628 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$2,479 | +$3,038 | +$3,755 | +$4,628 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$2,983 | +$3,501 | +$4,118 | +$4,628 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.