Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $315 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $315 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$1,550 (63.3%) on $2,450 risked, vs $-4,158 (-11.7%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 5.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $315. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $315 by Nov 20
+$1,550
+63.3% on $2,450 risked
Max Profit
+$33,050
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$2,450
Premium paid
Break-even
$330.50
-7.31% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-44.1 / -19.02 / 59.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$4,667 | +$4,541 | +$4,465 | +$4,524 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$3,245 | +$3,014 | +$2,785 | +$2,741 |
| $315 (-12%) โ target | +$2,389 | +$2,090 | +$1,743 | +$1,550 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$1,994 | +$1,665 | +$1,260 | +$958 |
| $339 (-5%) | +$931 | +$530 | -$16 | -$825 |
| $349 (-2%) | +$386 | -$40 | -$634 | -$1,895 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$61 | -$374 | -$982 | -$2,450 |
| $364 (+2%) | -$236 | -$673 | -$1,280 | -$2,450 |
| $374 (+5%) | -$629 | -$1,059 | -$1,639 | -$2,450 |
| $392 (+10%) | -$1,158 | -$1,551 | -$2,039 | -$2,450 |
| $410 (+15%) | -$1,552 | -$1,889 | -$2,259 | -$2,450 |
| $428 (+20%) | -$1,838 | -$2,111 | -$2,368 | -$2,450 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.