Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $400 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $356.58 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $400 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$4,342 (12.2%) on $35,658 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $400 by Nov 20
+$4,342
+12.2% on $35,658 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$35,658
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$356.58
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
53%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$7,132 | -$7,132 | -$7,132 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$5,349 | -$5,349 | -$5,349 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$3,566 | -$3,566 | -$3,566 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,783 | -$1,783 | -$1,783 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$713 | -$713 | -$713 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$713 | +$713 | +$713 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,783 | +$1,783 | +$1,783 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$3,566 | +$3,566 | +$3,566 |
| $400 (+12%) โ target | +$4,342 | +$4,342 | +$4,342 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$5,349 | +$5,349 | +$5,349 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$7,132 | +$7,132 | +$7,132 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.