Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $390 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $356.58 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $340 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $17.85 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $390 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$1,557 (4.2%) on $37,443 risked, vs +$3,342 (9.4%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $390. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $390 by Nov 20
+$1,557
+4.2% on $37,443 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$3,443
Put floors you at $340
Break-even
$374.43
+5.01% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.84 / -17.81 / 57.76
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | -$3,078 | -$3,269 | -$3,441 | -$3,443 |
| $303 (-15%) | -$2,595 | -$2,888 | -$3,235 | -$3,443 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$1,918 | -$2,291 | -$2,791 | -$3,443 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,041 | -$1,455 | -$2,033 | -$3,443 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$421 | -$840 | -$1,419 | -$2,498 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$28 | -$386 | -$948 | -$1,785 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$505 | +$101 | -$433 | -$1,072 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$1,268 | +$888 | +$413 | -$2 |
| $390 (+9%) โ target | +$2,470 | +$2,138 | +$1,765 | +$1,557 |
| $410 (+15%) | +$4,147 | +$3,886 | +$3,642 | +$3,564 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$5,731 | +$5,531 | +$5,377 | +$5,347 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.