Target Price Playground
TSLA
$356.58
๐ข
TSLA IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-25.8% vs 30d avg of 61.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $410 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $30.05 ยท ฮ 0.56
LONG PUT ยท $355 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $24.5 ยท ฮ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $410 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$45 (0.8%) on $5,455 risked, vs +$5,342 (15.0%) for 100 shares on $35,658. Options give 0.1ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $410. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $410 by Nov 20
+$45
+0.8% on $5,455 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$5,455
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$409.55
+14.86% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
44%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
12.23 / -41.82 / 118.9
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $285 (-20%) | +$2,088 | +$1,745 | +$1,497 | +$1,519 |
| $303 (-15%) | +$1,027 | +$474 | -$80 | -$264 |
| $321 (-10%) | +$308 | -$441 | -$1,347 | -$2,047 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$34 | -$927 | -$2,116 | -$3,830 |
| $349 (-2%) | -$54 | -$998 | -$2,283 | -$4,900 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | +$7 | -$953 | -$2,266 | -$5,297 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$127 | -$838 | -$2,148 | -$4,584 |
| $374 (+5%) | +$411 | -$539 | -$1,796 | -$3,514 |
| $392 (+10%) | +$1,136 | +$259 | -$813 | -$1,731 |
| $410 (+15%) โ target | +$2,127 | +$1,361 | +$525 | +$45 |
| $428 (+20%) | +$3,343 | +$2,705 | +$2,096 | +$1,835 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.