Target Price Playground
TSLA
$407.76
๐ข
TSLA IV: 49.6% โ LOW
(-28.2% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $440 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $407.76 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $440 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.78 ยท ฮ 0.41
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TSLA hits $440 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$5,402 (14.0%) on $38,598 risked, vs +$3,224 (7.9%) for 100 shares on $40,776. Options give 1.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TSLA is at $440. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TSLA hits $440 by Sep 18
+$5,402
+14.0% on $38,598 risked
Max Profit
+$5,402
If the stock โฅ $440 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$38,598
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$385.98
-5.34% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
72%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
58.97 / 25.1 / -73.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TSLA Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $326 (-20%) | -$6,317 | -$6,112 | -$5,991 | -$5,977 |
| $347 (-15%) | -$4,560 | -$4,241 | -$3,994 | -$3,938 |
| $367 (-10%) | -$2,944 | -$2,497 | -$2,073 | -$1,900 |
| $387 (-5%) | -$1,490 | -$922 | -$295 | +$139 |
| $400 (-2%) | -$703 | -$72 | +$671 | +$1,362 |
| $408 (0%) โ spot | -$215 | +$452 | +$1,264 | +$2,178 |
| $416 (+2%) | +$244 | +$942 | +$1,812 | +$2,994 |
| $428 (+5%) | +$878 | +$1,609 | +$2,543 | +$4,217 |
| $440 (+8%) โ target | +$1,430 | +$2,181 | +$3,146 | +$5,402 |
| $449 (+10%) | +$1,792 | +$2,549 | +$3,518 | +$5,402 |
| $469 (+15%) | +$2,541 | +$3,285 | +$4,209 | +$5,402 |
| $489 (+20%) | +$3,142 | +$3,845 | +$4,664 | +$5,402 |
Uses TSLA's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.