Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.48 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $240 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.35 ยท ฮ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $230 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,687 (207.5%) on $813 risked, vs $-3,343 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 16.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $230 by Nov 20
+$1,687
+207.5% on $813 risked
Max Profit
+$1,687
If the stock โค $240 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$813
Net debit
Break-even
$256.87
-2.49% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-18.54 / 0.13 / 7.65
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$1,297 | +$1,406 | +$1,568 | +$1,687 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$1,071 | +$1,171 | +$1,360 | +$1,687 |
| $230 (-13%) โ target | +$951 | +$1,037 | +$1,212 | +$1,687 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$803 | +$865 | +$1,000 | +$1,687 |
| $250 (-5%) | +$517 | +$522 | +$537 | +$661 |
| $258 (-2%) | +$347 | +$317 | +$252 | -$129 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | +$238 | +$185 | +$73 | -$656 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$133 | +$61 | -$91 | -$813 |
| $277 (+5%) | -$14 | -$110 | -$301 | -$813 |
| $290 (+10%) | -$227 | -$345 | -$552 | -$813 |
| $303 (+15%) | -$397 | -$518 | -$694 | -$813 |
| $316 (+20%) | -$527 | -$636 | -$764 | -$813 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.