Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
SHORT CALL ยท $285 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.31 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $295 by Nov 20: the bull call spread returns +$1,228 (159.1%) on $772 risked, vs +$3,157 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 13.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $295 by Nov 20
+$1,228
+159.1% on $772 risked
Max Profit
+$1,228
If the stock โฅ $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$772
Net debit
Break-even
$272.72
+3.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
16.03 / -1.01 / 1.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$645 | -$704 | -$761 | -$772 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$538 | -$616 | -$722 | -$772 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$389 | -$472 | -$617 | -$772 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$206 | -$271 | -$411 | -$772 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$84 | -$130 | -$237 | -$772 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$30 | -$105 | -$772 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$85 | +$72 | +$35 | -$402 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$211 | +$226 | +$250 | +$388 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$414 | +$470 | +$585 | +$1,228 |
| $295 (+12%) โ target | +$489 | +$559 | +$700 | +$1,228 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$596 | +$682 | +$849 | +$1,228 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$751 | +$852 | +$1,026 | +$1,228 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.