Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $285 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $285 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.31 ยท ฮ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $285 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$3,288 (13.0%) on $25,212 risked, vs +$2,157 (8.2%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $285. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $285 by Nov 20
+$3,288
+13.0% on $25,212 risked
Max Profit
+$3,288
If the stock โฅ $285 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$25,212
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$252.12
-4.29% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.01 / 14.89 / -42.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$4,229 | -$4,167 | -$4,140 | -$4,138 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$3,023 | -$2,906 | -$2,830 | -$2,820 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,900 | -$1,711 | -$1,547 | -$1,503 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$885 | -$619 | -$334 | -$186 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$338 | -$29 | +$334 | +$604 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$334 | +$745 | +$1,131 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$316 | +$671 | +$1,124 | +$1,658 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$747 | +$1,126 | +$1,626 | +$2,448 |
| $285 (+8%) โ target | +$1,149 | +$1,543 | +$2,068 | +$3,288 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$1,354 | +$1,750 | +$2,277 | +$3,288 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$1,831 | +$2,216 | +$2,707 | +$3,288 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$2,196 | +$2,548 | +$2,962 | +$3,288 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.