Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $250 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Dec '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.66 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $250 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $250 by Nov 20: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,285 (171.1%) on $751 risked, vs $-1,343 (-5.1%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 33.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $250. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $250 by Nov 20
+$1,285
+171.1% on $751 risked
Max Profit
+$1,271
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
โ$735
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$276.18
+4.84% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
78%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-10.1 / 3.63 / 9.92
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$648 | +$693 | +$730 | +$687 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$600 | +$667 | +$758 | +$761 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$517 | +$595 | +$729 | +$942 |
| $250 (-5%) โ target | +$404 | +$474 | +$607 | +$1,285 |
| $258 (-2%) | +$320 | +$376 | +$484 | +$790 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | +$262 | +$307 | +$389 | +$517 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$202 | +$234 | +$287 | +$279 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$110 | +$121 | +$129 | -$14 |
| $290 (+10%) | -$43 | -$65 | -$125 | -$355 |
| $303 (+15%) | -$185 | -$234 | -$334 | -$553 |
| $316 (+20%) | -$311 | -$375 | -$489 | -$659 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.