Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $295 by Nov 20: the long call returns +$1,097 (57.7%) on $1,903 risked, vs +$3,157 (12.0%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 4.8ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $295. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $295 by Nov 20
+$1,097
+57.7% on $1,903 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$1,903
Premium paid
Break-even
$284.03
+7.82% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
54.02 / -15.91 / 44.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$1,684 | -$1,806 | -$1,890 | -$1,903 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$1,466 | -$1,662 | -$1,843 | -$1,903 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,123 | -$1,395 | -$1,704 | -$1,903 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$637 | -$969 | -$1,394 | -$1,903 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$273 | -$628 | -$1,098 | -$1,903 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$364 | -$850 | -$1,903 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$296 | -$72 | -$562 | -$1,533 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$782 | +$417 | -$59 | -$743 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$1,694 | +$1,354 | +$943 | +$574 |
| $295 (+12%) โ target | +$2,088 | +$1,763 | +$1,386 | +$1,097 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$2,715 | +$2,417 | +$2,093 | +$1,891 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$3,824 | +$3,573 | +$3,333 | +$3,209 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.