Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $230 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.48 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $230 by Nov 20: the long put returns +$1,652 (89.4%) on $1,848 risked, vs $-3,343 (-12.7%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 7.0ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $230. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $230 by Nov 20
+$1,652
+89.4% on $1,848 risked
Max Profit
+$24,652
If stock โ $0
Max Loss
โ$1,848
Premium paid
Break-even
$246.52
-6.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-45.98 / -12.66 / 44.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$3,585 | +$3,532 | +$3,519 | +$3,578 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$2,486 | +$2,358 | +$2,248 | +$2,260 |
| $230 (-13%) โ target | +$2,019 | +$1,855 | +$1,688 | +$1,652 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$1,511 | +$1,307 | +$1,071 | +$943 |
| $250 (-5%) | +$680 | +$416 | +$64 | -$374 |
| $258 (-2%) | +$254 | -$33 | -$431 | -$1,164 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | -$296 | -$710 | -$1,691 |
| $269 (+2%) | -$231 | -$530 | -$949 | -$1,848 |
| $277 (+5%) | -$535 | -$831 | -$1,236 | -$1,848 |
| $290 (+10%) | -$939 | -$1,211 | -$1,551 | -$1,848 |
| $303 (+15%) | -$1,235 | -$1,465 | -$1,717 | -$1,848 |
| $316 (+20%) | -$1,444 | -$1,627 | -$1,796 | -$1,848 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.