Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $295 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $295 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$3,157 (12.0%) on $26,343 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $295 by Nov 20
+$3,157
+12.0% on $26,343 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$26,343
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$263.43
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
50%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$5,269 | -$5,269 | -$5,269 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$3,951 | -$3,951 | -$3,951 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$2,634 | -$2,634 | -$2,634 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$1,317 | -$1,317 | -$1,317 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$527 | -$527 | -$527 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$527 | +$527 | +$527 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$1,317 | +$1,317 | +$1,317 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$2,634 | +$2,634 | +$2,634 |
| $295 (+12%) โ target | +$3,157 | +$3,157 | +$3,157 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$3,951 | +$3,951 | +$3,951 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$5,269 | +$5,269 | +$5,269 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.