Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $290 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $263.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $250 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $14.15 ยท ฮ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $290 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$1,242 (4.5%) on $27,758 risked, vs +$2,657 (10.1%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $290. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $290 by Nov 20
+$1,242
+4.5% on $27,758 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,758
Put floors you at $250
Break-even
$277.58
+5.37% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
57%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.38 / -13.89 / 42.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | -$2,556 | -$2,673 | -$2,772 | -$2,758 |
| $224 (-15%) | -$2,214 | -$2,408 | -$2,634 | -$2,758 |
| $237 (-10%) | -$1,721 | -$1,973 | -$2,313 | -$2,758 |
| $250 (-5%) | -$1,067 | -$1,348 | -$1,742 | -$2,732 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$601 | -$883 | -$1,273 | -$1,942 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | -$262 | -$538 | -$911 | -$1,415 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$99 | -$168 | -$516 | -$888 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$678 | +$431 | +$130 | -$98 |
| $290 (+10%) โ target | +$1,745 | +$1,543 | +$1,333 | +$1,242 |
| $303 (+15%) | +$2,859 | +$2,704 | +$2,570 | +$2,536 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$4,055 | +$3,943 | +$3,865 | +$3,854 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.