Target Price Playground
TXN
$263.43
๐ข
TXN IV: 45.3% โ LOW
(-34.3% vs 30d avg of 69.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $19.03 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $265 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.48 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If TXN hits $305 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$249 (6.6%) on $3,751 risked, vs +$4,157 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $26,343. Options give 0.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if TXN is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if TXN hits $305 by Nov 20
+$249
+6.6% on $3,751 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,751
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$227.49
-13.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
38%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
8.05 / -28.57 / 88.25
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| TXN Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $211 (-20%) | +$1,901 | +$1,725 | +$1,629 | +$1,675 |
| $224 (-15%) | +$1,020 | +$696 | +$405 | +$357 |
| $237 (-10%) | +$388 | -$88 | -$633 | -$960 |
| $250 (-5%) | +$43 | -$553 | -$1,330 | -$2,277 |
| $258 (-2%) | -$19 | -$661 | -$1,529 | -$3,067 |
| $263 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | -$660 | -$1,560 | -$3,594 |
| $269 (+2%) | +$65 | -$602 | -$1,512 | -$3,381 |
| $277 (+5%) | +$247 | -$414 | -$1,295 | -$2,591 |
| $290 (+10%) | +$755 | +$144 | -$608 | -$1,274 |
| $305 (+16%) โ target | +$1,611 | +$1,097 | +$548 | +$249 |
| $316 (+20%) | +$2,380 | +$1,946 | +$1,537 | +$1,361 |
Uses TXN's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.