Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $115 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$165 (1.7%) on $-165 credit (max loss $9,735), vs +$691 (6.4%) for 100 shares on $10,809. Options give 0.3ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 (-20%) | -$1,102 | -$1,082 | -$1,070 | -$1,088 |
| $92 (-15%) | -$692 | -$641 | -$580 | -$547 |
| $97 (-10%) | -$371 | -$300 | -$199 | -$7 |
| $103 (-5%) | -$144 | -$71 | +$28 | +$165 |
| $106 (-2%) | -$49 | +$17 | +$99 | +$165 |
| $108 (0%) โ spot | -$0 | +$59 | +$126 | +$165 |
| $110 (+2%) | +$39 | +$91 | +$143 | +$165 |
| $113 (+5%) | +$83 | +$123 | +$157 | +$165 |
| $115 (+6%) โ target | +$99 | +$133 | +$160 | +$165 |
| $119 (+10%) | +$128 | +$150 | +$164 | +$165 |
| $124 (+15%) | +$149 | +$160 | +$165 | +$165 |
| $130 (+20%) | +$158 | +$164 | +$165 | +$165 |