Target Price Playground
WMT
$108.09
๐ข
WMT IV: 25.9% โ LOW
(-36.6% vs 30d avg of 40.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $115 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $108.09 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $115 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $2.75 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If WMT hits $115 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$966 (9.2%) on $10,534 risked, vs +$691 (6.4%) for 100 shares on $10,809. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if WMT is at $115. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if WMT hits $115 by Nov 20
+$966
+9.2% on $10,534 risked
Max Profit
+$966
If the stock โฅ $115 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$10,534
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$105.34
-2.54% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.11 / 3.77 / -16.64
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| WMT Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $86 (-20%) | -$1,893 | -$1,888 | -$1,887 | -$1,887 |
| $92 (-15%) | -$1,368 | -$1,352 | -$1,346 | -$1,346 |
| $97 (-10%) | -$870 | -$833 | -$809 | -$806 |
| $103 (-5%) | -$417 | -$350 | -$287 | -$265 |
| $106 (-2%) | -$177 | -$91 | +$3 | +$59 |
| $108 (0%) โ spot | -$31 | +$65 | +$180 | +$275 |
| $110 (+2%) | +$101 | +$206 | +$339 | +$491 |
| $113 (+5%) | +$275 | +$389 | +$540 | +$815 |
| $115 (+6%) โ target | +$346 | +$462 | +$616 | +$966 |
| $119 (+10%) | +$501 | +$617 | +$765 | +$966 |
| $124 (+15%) | +$655 | +$758 | +$876 | +$966 |
| $130 (+20%) | +$753 | +$836 | +$918 | +$966 |
Uses WMT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.